For the last few decades, the last embers of Democratic strength in their ancestral homeland, the south, have been fizzling away. When they at one time dominated in the deep south, they now lose routinely lose by large margins.
So far…
Democrats won a State Supreme Court race in swing-state Wisconsin by 12 points, in an election where abortion rights dominated. Though, on the same ballot, they narrowly lost a competitive state senate election in suburban Milwaukee.
Progressive Democrat Brandon Johnson narrowly beat Republican-turned-Democrat Paul Vallas in deep-blue Chicago. The race was widely viewed as a referendum on how to respond to crime and was starkly polarized by race, with Black Chicagans strongly supporting Jonhson, and whites strongly supporting Vallas.
Kentucky (2020 Pres: R+25.9, 2019 Governor: D+0.4)
One might be surprised to learn that a staunchly conservative state like Kentucky has a Democratic governor. The son of former governor Steve Beshear, Andy Beshear (D) has held the office of Governor since narrowly beating the incumbent GOP Governor in 2019.
But despite this surprising factoid, he’s had little power to implement his agenda. The GOP supermajority in the KY State Legislature consistently overrides his veto to pass legislation that has restricted LGBTQ rights, increased funding for private schools, and implement gerrymandered voting maps.
Nevertheless, Beshear is Kentucky Democrats’ last statewide elected official and is running for reelection in 2023. He consistently earns approval ratings over 60%, but many Republicans such as Attorney General Daniel Cameron have announced plans to challenge him.
Kentucky is a deeply conservative state, but Beshear is an extremely popular governor. This race is a Toss-up.
Lousiana (2020 Pres: Trump+18.6, 2019 Governor: D+2.6)
Like Beshear in Kentucky, Governor John Bel Edwards is the last Democrat elected statewide in his state.
Due to a party switch this year, the Louisana GOP now has a supermajority in the state legislature, which has allowed them to override his vetos on anti-trans and election maps legislation, though he’s managed to sustain his veto on gun rights bills. Still, Edwards is a conservative Democrat and signed an anti-abortion ban into law.
Republicans have so far united around Attorney General Jeff Landry (R). While progressive Democrats and the moderate LADEM establishment have coalesced around Shawn Wilson, former head of the state DOTD. However, without the incumbency of Edwards, Republicans are heavily favored to flip the Governor’s office in deep-red Louisiana.
LADems is poised finally face the fate of the rest of Southern Democrats — fully ceding all state-level control to the Republicans. Rating: Very Likely Republican
Mississippi (2020 Pres: Trump+16.5, 2019 Governor: R+5.5)
By multiple metrics, Mississippi is the poorest and least healthy state in the nation. That status gained national attention with the Jackson water crisis, where residents in the capital of the state were left without clean water for weeks. Moreover, that combined with a welfare scandal （where funds for food stamps were used to build a stadium) has created a mess for the incumbent Republican Governor, Tate Reeves.
In a surprising turn of events, Elvis Presley’s cousin — Brandon Presley — is challenging Reeves. Presley holds on a legislative seat on a state board seat that Trump won by 27 points in 2020.
Despite the state being solidly red at the Presidential level, Democrats had managed to keep elections close at the local level, such as when Attorney General Jim Hood lost a close race to Reeves in 2019. Rating: Lean Republican
Bonus: This year also features legislative elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
Democrats are extremely likely to hold onto both chambers in blue New Jersey. Rating: Likely Democratic
According to election forecaster CNalysis, they’re also slightly favored to flip the Virginia House and hold the Virginia Senate, putting a check on GOP Gov Glen Youngkin. Rating: Tilt Democratic