Well it’s almost that time of year again! Huh? What’s that? You don’t sit down to watch the Oscars in full with your entire family? Oh. Just me then? Well, Conan O’Brien’s back again, so it’s bound to be another great year for this show. This stupid, pointless, highly exciting show. This show is like the super bowl for people who open IMDb on a weekly basis. Anyway, since this event is on the horizon, I’d say now’s a better time than ever to take a look back on last year’s offerings and make my best guess as to who will take the win for each category. Oh yeah, and this article won’t be released until several days after the Oscars have aired, so feel free to open up the actual Oscar winners on another tab and judge how well I did at predicting. One last thing; I (unfortunately) couldn’t watch every movie to be nominated, so some categories will be skipped and some nominees will be overlooked by me, unless I’ve heard significant online discourse about them.
“Animated Film”
Nominees: Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
Prediction: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Explanation: This is the only category where I’ve only seen one film, that being Elio, which, to put it lightly, was not Pixar’s best work. Overall, this year felt much slower than previous years in terms of big mainstream animated films, beyond the obvious success of KPop Demon Hunters. I just can’t see it winning here because of the Academy’s recent track record of rewarding more thought-provoking animated features in recent years (The Boy and the Heron, Flow, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio). Little Amélie seems to fit that bill much better than the much more popular KPop Demon Hunters.
“Writing (Original Screenplay)”
Nominees: Blue Moon, It Was Just An Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Prediction: Blue Moon
Explanation: There’s strong competition for both writing categories this year (I’m not going to predict for adapted screenplay cause I just have no clue on that one), and yet Blue Moon rises next to these other scripts. The long-winded monologues that delve further and further into Lorenz Hart’s passions and ego lead into the eventual slow acceptance that it’s past his time as an artist. Every conversation has some double meaning that reveals more about our protagonist’s fragile (yet impenetrable) psyche. The words are absolutely elevated by Ethan Hawke’s performance which we’ll get to later…
“Production Design”
Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction: Frankenstein
Explanation: I don’t see Frankenstein taking home more than one award, and if it’s going to take anything, it’s most definitely going to be production design. The scale of the ship caught in the ice, the tangible energy and horror of Victor’s lab and manor, the colors, the enormous rooms, everything just looks fantastic. It connects this gloomy mid-19th century world to this strangely beautiful sci-fi aesthetic, with all the green tubes and machinery lining the lab. I hope this film gets the credit it deserves for how pretty it looks (It’s kind of the only thing it has going for it besides Jacob Elordi’s performance as the monster.)
“Music (Original Score)”
Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners
Explanation: This is maybe the closest category of all this year. Every single soundtrack up for this award is just fantastic. Bugonia is a close second for me, with its unnerving cheerful atmosphere followed by the most horrifying sound cue of last year during the film’s messed up climax. Sinners just feels like the winner of this category. Not only does the film contain the most memorable soundtrack, but it also implements the soundtrack into its story so much more. Composer Ludwig Goransson also is an academy favorite, with wins for both Black Panther and Oppenheimer under his belt. I think he deserves a nice round third win, and if not for this movie, I don’t know if he will be able to top himself.
“Cinematography”
Nominees: Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Explanation: As much as I’d prefer a Sinners or Marty Supreme win here, there’s no denying the striking cinematography in Paul Thomas Anderson’s superhit. The climactic car chase over the hills already feels like an iconic shot we’ll be talking about still several years from now. The movie is framed so precisely. All the long-shots are a treat. I’m not as big of a fan of this movie as everyone else, but the masterful cinematography is really something to be admired.
“Costume Design”
Nominees: Avatar Fire & Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
Prediction: Sinners
Explanation: Upon rewatching some of my favorite scenes from Sinners, I realized just how much you can learn about the large cast of characters just from their costumes. For example, between the twin protagonists, Smoke is much more guarded and careful while Stack is reckless and charming. Smoke wears an older looking jacket and newspaper boy cap while Stack dresses in a nicer, more modern looking suit, complete with a pocket square and chain. He also dons a fedora-like hat. Just the simple differences in style demonstrate the opposing worldviews held by the twins. This attention to detail goes for the rest of the cast’s outfits too. It feels really special and I hope Ruth E. Carter is recognized for yet another amazing costume lineup.
“Directing”
Nominees: Chloé Zhao (Hamnet), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Ryan Coogler (Sinners)
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson
Explanation: Probably my least favorite direction of the nominees overall (still haven’t seen Sentimental Value unfortunately) but Paul Thomas Anderson’s style is so vivid and deserving of praise that I think the academy will take any chance they can to once again put him on a pedestal. I’m not really upset with that, but I definitely think that Coogler and Zhao both created a film that felt very passionate. I think the award should go to one of the two of them, but deep down I feel like it will go to no one else but PTA.
“Actor in a Supporting Role”
Nominees: Benicio Del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Delroy Lindo (Sinners), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)
Prediction: Delroy Lindo
Explanation: I think a Sinners sweep is coming, and that includes categories that I don’t necessarily think it should win. For example, this one. I absolutely adore Delroy Lindo as the funny old guy in Sinners, but that kind of performance is just not comparable to what Jacob Elordi did last year as the creature. He found an innocence within that character that I don’t think has been properly captured on screen before. Delroy Lindo would still be a fantastic winner, and definitely deserves the praise for such a prolific career and an unforgettably joyous performance in Sinners.
“Actress in a Supporting Role”
Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Prediction: Amy Madigan
Explanation: I really truly hope I’m right about this and the academy notices how terrifyingly striking Madigan’s performance was in Weapons. One of the most memorable performances of 2025 for sure. Teyana Taylor seems to be the frontrunner for this award, but I honestly cannot understand why she’s being praised so much for One Battle. Don’t get me wrong, I love Taylor in some of the other projects I’ve seen her in recently, but she just doesn’t have much to do in this film and didn’t leave much of an impression on me. I can, however, see Wunmi Mosaku winning this instead of Amy Madigan, which I would be absolutely fine with. Another fantastic Sinners cast member. I just feel like Madigan’s performance gave me more of an emotional response (that being fear) than any of these other actresses.
“Actor in a Leading Role”
Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo Dicaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)
Prediction: Ethan Hawke
Explanation: Hawke disappears into the role of Lorenz Hart. He’s got a very long career and many famous characters and yet it’s still hard to tell it’s him. Not because he looks incredibly different, but because he portrays Hart with such specificity in his speech patterns, in his mannerisms, in his strange waddle walk. He garners sympathy through his eyes, even while his mouth is running with some narcissistic bullcrap. Even though he gives these twisty turny pointless monologues that nobody in the room is really interested in, you as an audience member are pulled in just because of the presence with which he speaks. It’s miraculous how Hawke’s character can have such a massive presence beyond the screen, yet go unnoticed by everyone at the party in the film.
“Actress in a Leading Role”
Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia)
Prediction: Jessie Buckley
Explanation: Easily the most transcendent performance of 2025. Natural, painful, at times agonizing even; Jesse Buckley’s performance in Hamnet feels like the culmination of the woes of motherhood. Even though not many years have passed from the beginning to the end of the film, you feel as though you’ve witnessed this lonesome young girl go from a forest whisperer to a voice for the people, and a sort of muse of Shakespeare’s, her husbands. Her reactions to the play at the end are on their own enough to take this award. Just a beautiful performance.
“Best Picture”
Nominees: Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
Prediction: Sinners
Explanation: What else can it even be at this point? I know there’s a massive argument for One Battle taking best picture this year, but it just doesn’t have the same significance as Sinners. Sinners was the highest grossing original picture in the past decade. It saved me and countless others from “franchise fatigue”. It was a standalone, energetic, thematically rich, wonderfully acted film that could be enjoyed by cinephiles and average moviegoers alike. It’s an incredible genre fusion. One Battle After Another just doesn’t have the same mass appeal, and while that’s never been a major factor in deciding the best picture, it definitely contributes to the overall standards for best picture. I mean just recently we’ve gotten winners like Oppenheimer, Anora, and Everything Everywhere All At Once; films that movie fans generally wanted the academy to choose. I’m hoping it’ll follow a similar pattern this year with Sinners coming out on top.